‘Nothing is older than our habit of calling everything new”. Mark Twain.
As our country streaks towards economic catastrophe, I hear many colleagues and clients say that we are in an age unlike ever before. For example, derision and separation amongst The Congress while public debts soar uncontrollably. Or, the American Allies dismay at the “new” America First policy utilizing military and economic unilateralism as middle American patriotism demands international pitchfork justice (leaving free trade alone here). The new playing field seems to be that we find opponents where we once found teammates. I for one, do not see this period of economic or political history too unlike previous epochs. 1760, 1850 or 1940 come to mind.
The players change but the game is the same.
You see the date progression? Roughly, every 90-100 years is considered a Saeculum, or a complete renewal of the human population. Each sauculum is divided into four distinct times, or turnings. Currently, we are engulfed in the fourth turning of our current saeculum. Fourth turnings are the Crisis. Even the early Romans were fascinated by “units of time”. Legend has it that Romulus predicted the fall of Rome within a few years, 12 centuries before the eventual fall!
History has turning points, or saeculums that occur in inevitable cycles. Projecting out from the previous 1940 turning brings us to 2030. We are well within our current “crisis” stage. We have seen 9-11 and the great recession of 2008. If history is any gauge, the worst is yet to come. Crisis stages usually end in war. No doubt we have seen war, but not the war that opens the gate to a new beginning, a new saeculum. Opportunity or disaster awaits at the end of the next great war. Can the cycle of history be averted? Time will tell.
In the meantime, there seems to be some very positive divergences in the metals markets occurring, which coincides with the “crisis” theme of this article. The metals have been in a holding pattern for a couple of years but seem ready to make a move higher within the next few months. Gold and silver have had that look in their eyes before and have vexed many metals players. I either saw gold wink, or there was a little gold dust in its eyes.
Craig is a Registered Investment Advisor Principal at Leamington Capital Advisors. Craig can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org for a free consultation.